8:29am Wednesday 23rd May 2007
By Helen Thomas
PLANS to cope with a pandemic flu outbreak in Wiltshire, which could claim the lives of more almost 8,000 people, have been drafted by the Primary Care Trust.
According to the second draft of the report, written by emergency planning manager Deborah Haynes, the Department of Health has identified an influenza pandemic as the most significant current risk to public health and all PCTs have been instructed to plan for such a major incident.
The threat of avian flu, which affects birds but can infect humans with close contact with poultry, is one of the reasons behind the plan.
The report says: "There is concern that the Avian virus could evolve into a strain that readily infects people and is easily transmissible, resulting in a pandemic virus. This is why we are planning for a possible human flu pandemic."
Health experts believe a flu pandemic is inevitable and predict it could affect as much as half the population when it strikes.
This means in a worst-case scenario in Wiltshire and Swindon, which has a population of about 629,000, up to 314,500 people could be affected by the illness. Between 0.37 and 2.5 per cent are expected to die from the virus, meaning there could be up to 7,864 deaths.
The plan outlines the suggested action for health care providers, including GP practices, pharmacies and community hospitals to take at different stages of the pandemic.
If a new virus is found in the UK a major incident will be declared and the PCT will establish a Health Incident Co-ordination Centre at its headquarters in Southgate House, in Devizes.
Anti-viral drug Oseltamivir (Tamiflu), which must be taken within 48 hours of developing symptoms, has already been stockpiled nationwide and up to 14.6million doses are available, which would treat 25 per cent of the country.
The report says: "During the pandemic, people exhibiting symptoms will be encouraged not to go to their GP but instead make telephone contact to a central call handling system to assess whether they will be eligible for a course of Oseltamivir (Tamiflu)."
Across the health service in the county face-to-face meetings would be minimised with email and telephone communication increased.
Within GP practices, action would be taken to avoid contact between infected and non-infected patients with physical barriers, removal of toys and magazines and a reduction of routine treatments like blood tests, cervical smears and routine reviews.
A vaccine against pandemic flu would not be available for between four to six months after an outbreak, while experts determine the specific strain of the virus.
When a vaccine is developed, mass immunisation could take place for the general public in places such as town and village halls, schools and mobile units.
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