Why the forecasts of growth are all wrong

The Tory MP who chairs his party’s economic affairs committee, said he is suspicious of economic forecasts, even when it’s from the Office of Budget Responsibility, whose cutting room floor is littered with revised forecasts, as they have to adjust their sights downwards.

Remember their forecast in 2010 for 2012 – growth 2.8 percent? It’s expected to be minus 0.1.

I now know why the OBR’s forecasts are always wrong.

Robert Chote, the OBR’s top man, was interviewed by Jeremy Paxman on Newsnight. He asked him “why are your forecasts always wrong, do you expect them to be wrong?” “Yes”, said Robert. “We base our forecasts on what the Chancellor says he will do in the coming year in the 2011 Autumn Statement.”

He promised £3.5bn spending on infrastructure, roads and railways and yet not one digger was put on a site during the year where a new road was planned or a railway plan started, so as expected the estimate was wrong!

Again this year £5bn is promised on school building, roads, skills and science, nothing on railways and, as transport will be hardest hit over the next two years, one percent this year (2013), two percent next year (2014), growth will again be stagnant.

And I came across a cutting from the Advertiser February 22, 2006. It was Rod Bluh telling us the police station on Princes Street came down and, although it was another open space, it will soon be filled.

It also told us of the progress on the Granville Street development, although not started he said it would be completed by 2011. Where is it?

Is it their idea of a joke or their incompetence?

M J Warner Groundwell Road, Swindon

PCC must act

Since the PCC election I note the Dorset, Gloucester and Avon PCCs have all started a consultation on their police and crime plans and a check on their press or PCC websites shows what they have been doing.

Our PCC, by contrast, has been noticeable by his absence.

The Wiltshire Police website has no news on it at all.

There is no consultation on a crime plan and a Crime Panel meeting on December 5 was attended by Mr. Macpherson but he said nothing of note.

I have seen no meetings planned or surgeries, no sign of the PCC meeting people, nothing.

I read Mr Buckland’s recent letter telling us we “should wait and see what Angus does for us.” Well so far he has done nothing, just sucked up the £70k salary.

John Lilburne Swindon

Sell the BBC

I HAVE had a gut’s full of the BBC’s navel gazing. Flog it off to the highest bidder and then we can all decide whether or not we contribute.

CJ MEEK Cloche Way Upper Stratton Swindon

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